Debe ser este el mejor libro de divulgación sobre Investments escrito de tal manera de ser asequible al público en general. Permite al lego en la materia tomar decisiones de financiamiento personales correctas, que pueden incluso superar a las estrategias de los bancos de inversión más sofisticados. Permite entender los riegos que asumimos y plantea estrategias en función del horizonte de inversión de cada persona en particular. Escrito por un reconocido academico, pero también por alguien que participo activamente en el directorio de AMEX, de los Vanguard Funds, y fue miembro del Council of Economic Advisors.
Nuestra
calificación: ****
Dificultad
matemática: *
Capítulos:
PART ONE STOCKS AND THEIR VALUE
1. Firm Foundations and Castles
in the Air 23 What Is a Random Walk? 24 Investing as a Way of Life Today 26 Investing in Theory 28 The Firm‑Foundation Theory 28 The Castle‑in‑the‑Air Theory 30 How the Random Walk Is to Be Conducted 32
2. The Madness of Crowds 34 The Tulip‑Bulb Craze 35 The South Sea Bubble 38 The Florida Real Estate Craze 44 Wall Street Lays an Egg 45 An Afterword 52
3. Stock Valuation from the
Sixties into the Nineties 54 The
Sanity of Institutions 54 The Soaring Sixties 56
The New "New
Era".‑ The Growth‑StocAlNew‑Issue Craze 56
Synergy Generates Energy: The Conglomerate Boom 61
Performance Comes to the MarAet: The Bubble in
Concept StocAs 68
The Sour Seventies 74
The Nifty Fifty 74
The Roaring Eighties 76
The Triumphant Return of New Issues 77
Concepts Conquer Again: The Biotechnology Bubble 79
The Chinese Romance with the
Lycoris Plant 82
Some Other Bubbles of the 1980s
83
The Nervy Nineties 87
The Japanese Yen for Land and Stocks 87
4. The Firm‑Foundation
Theory of Stock Prices 93 The
"Fundamental" Determinants of Stock Prices 94 Two Important Caveats 101 Testing the Rules 104 One More Caveat 106 What's Left of the Firm Foundation? 109
PART
Two HOW THE PROS PLAY THE BIGGEST GAME IN TOWN
5. Technical and Fundamental
Analysis 115 Technical versus Fundamental Analysis 116 What Can Charts Tell You? 118 The Rationale for the Charting Method 122 Why Might Charting Fail to Work? 124 From Chartist to Technician 126 The Technique of Fundamental Analysis 127 Why Might Fundamental
Analysis Fail to Work? 131 Using Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Together 132
6.
Technical Analysis and the Random-Walk
Theory 137 Holes in Their Shoes and
Ambiguity in Their Forecasts 138 Is There Momentum in the Stock Market? 140 just What Exactly Is a Random Walk? 141 Some More Elaborate Technical
Systems 145 TheFilterSystem 145 The Dow Theory 146 The
Relative-Strength
System 147 Price-
Volume Systems 147 Reading
Chart Patterns 147 Randomness Is Hard to Accept 149
A Gaggle of Other Technical Theories to Help You Lose Money 150 The Hemline Indicator 150 The
Super Bowl Indicator 152 The Odd-Lot
Theory 153 AFewMoreSystems 154 Technical Market Gurus 155
Why
Are Technicians Still Hired? 158 Appraising the Counterattack 158 implications for Investors 161
7. How Good Is Fundamental
Analysis? 164 The Views from Wall Street and Academia 165 Are Security Analysts Fundamentally Clairvoyant? 166 Why the Crystal Ball Is Clouded 169
1. The Influence of Random Events 170
2. The Creation of Dubious
Reported Earnings through "Creative"Accounting Procedures 171
3, The Basic Incompetence of Many of the Analysts
Themselves 173
4. The Loss of the Best
Analysts to the Sales Desk or to Portfolio Management 176 Do Security Analysts Pick Winners? The Performance of the Mutual Funds 177 Can Any Fundamental System Pick Winners? 184 The Verdict on Market Timing 186 The Semi-strong and Strong Forms of the Random-Walk Theory 189 The Middle of the Road: A Personal Viewpoint 191
8. A More Deliberate Walk
Down Wall Street: Is the Stock Market Predictable After All? 194 Predictable Patterns in the Behavior of Stock Prices 196 Predictable Relationships Between Certain "Fundamental" Variables
and Future Stock Prices 204 Strong Form of the Efficient-Market Hypothesis 209 The Performance of Professional Investors 210 Some Other Anomalies 215 The Market Crash of October 1987 217 Concluding Comments 221
PART
THREE THE NEW INVESTMENT TECHNOLOGY
9. Modern Portfolio and
Capital‑Asset Pricing Theory 227 Defining Risk: The
Dispersion of Returns 229 Exhibit
Expected Return and Variance:
Measures of Reward and Risk 229 Documenting
Risk: A Long‑Run Study 232 Reducing Risk: Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) 235 Modeling Risk: The Capital-Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) 241
10. The Current State of the Art:
Beyond Beta 251 Batting for Beta: The Supporting Evidence 252 Being Bearish on Beta: Some Disquieting Results 254 Academic Attack 1: Theory
Does Not Measure Up to Practice 256 Academic Attack 2: Beta Is a Fickle Short
Term Performer (and Sometimes It Fails to Work for Long Periods of Time) 258
Academic Attack 3. Estimated Betas Are Unstable 260 Academic Attack 4.‑
Beta Is Easily Rolled Over 266 Academic Attack 5.Has Beta Ever Been a Reliable
Predictor ofFuture Returns? 267 An
Appraisal of the Evidence 269
The Quant Quest for Better Measures ofRisk.. Arbitrage Pricing Theory 271 A Summing Up 275
11. How Pork Bellies Acquired an
Ivy League Suit: A Primer on Derivatives 277 The Basic Types of Derivatives 278 The Futures Markets: Functions and History 280 The Options Markets:
Functions and History 285 The Exciting Dangers of Derivatives 289 Some Illustrations of the Potential Profits and Pitfalls from Options
and Futures 293
Bullish on Micron Technology Stock-Alternative
Profit and
Risk
Positions 293 Bearish on Micron
Technology Stock
-Alternative Profit and Risk Positions
296 Strategies Involving Financial Futures 300 The Controversy Over
Derivatives 301
Some Rules for Individual Investors 305
Appendix to Chapter 11: What
Determines Prices in the
Futures and Options Markets? 311
PART FOUR A PRACTICAL GUIDE FOR RANDOM WALKERS AND OTHER
INVESTORS
12. A Fitness Manual for Random
Walkers 317 Exercise 1: Cover Thyself with Protection 318 Exercise 2:
Know Your Investment Objectives 321 Exercise 3: Dodge Uncle Sam Whenever You Can 329
Exercise 4: Be Competitive; Let the Yield on Your Cash Reserve Keep Pace
with Inflation 334
Money-Market
Mutual Funds 3.74
Money-Market
Deposit Accounts 337 Bank Certificates 338
Tax-ExemptMoney-Market
Funds 339
Exercise 5: Investigate a Promenade through Bond
Country 341 Zero-Coupon
Bonds Can Generate Large Future Returns 342
No-Load
Bond Funds Are Appropriate Vehicles for Individual Investors 344
Tax‑Exempt
Bonds Are Useful for High-Bracket
Investors 345 Should You Be a
Bond‑Market junkie? 348
Exercise 6: Begin Your Walk at Your Own Home; Renting Leads to Flabby
Investment Muscles 349
Exercise 7: After the Real Estate Depression of the Early 1990s, Some
Attractive Opportunities Exist in Commercial Real Estate 353
Exercise 8: Tiptoe through the Investment Fields of Gold and Collectibles
358
Exercise 9: Remember that Commission Costs Are Not Random; Some Are
Cheaper than Others 362
Exercise 10: Diversify Your Investment Steps 363 A Final Checkup 364
13. The Determinants of Stock and Bond Returns
and How You Can Roughly Project the Future Returns from Financial Assets 366
The Acceleration of Inflation in the Late 1960s and 1970s 370 The Agony
of the Bond Investor 372
The Sorrow of the Stock Investor 372
Why Did Common Stocks Fail in the 1970's? Some False Clues 373
The Smoking Gun: The Price-Dividends, Price-Earnings Crash of the 1970s
377
The 1980 Paper-Asset Thesis 380
The 1980s A Decade for Paper Assets 381
Returns During the First Half of the 1990s 383 judging Returns for
Financial Investments during the Late 1990s and into the Twenty First Century
384
Could I Be Wrong? 396
14. A Life-Cycle Guide to Investing 400 1.
Risk and Reward Are Related 401 2. Your Actual Risk in Stock and Bond Investing
Depends on the Length of Time You Hold Your Investment 402 3. Dollar-Cost Averaging Can Reduce the Risks of Investing in Stocks and
Bonds 405
4. The Risks You Can Afford to Take Depend on Your Total
Financial Situation 408 The Life-Cycle Investment Guide, with Some
Individual Adjustments to the Game Plan 411
15. Three Giant Steps Down Wall Street 421 The
No-Brainer Step: Buying the Market 422 The Tax-Managed Index Fund 429 The Deep-Thinker Step: Doing It Yourself 432 The Substitute-Player Step:
Hire a Professional Wall-Street Walker 441 Risk Level 445 Unrealized Gains 445 Expense Ratios
446 The Morningstar Mutual-Fund Information Service 446 A Primer on Mutual-Fund Costs 449 Loading Fees 450 Expense
Charges 451 Comparing Mutual-Fund
Costs 452 The Malkiel Step 453 A Paradox 456 Some Last Reflections on Our Walk 458
A Random
Walker's Address Book and Reference Guide to Mutual Funds 461