Finanzas

Disinflation faster than expected: transitional household credit risk in Argentina (2016-2026)

Número
929
Autor
David Mermelstein
Mes/Año
07/2026
Adjunto
Resumen

Rapid disinflation can increase household credit risk by raising the real burden of fixed-rate debt. Using a monthly, product-level panel for Argentina, this paper studies the effect on household credit risk of the disinflation that began after December 2023, when inflation fell from 25% to under 2% within a year. Because non-performing loan (NPL) ratios are highly persistent, responses are estimated with Local Projections on cumulative changes rather than levels. The response is hump-shaped, peaking around 16 months in unsecured, fixed-rate consumer credit, with the aggregate household NPL ratio rising from 2.8% to 12.1%. The findings are consistent with a Fisherian mechanism: ex-post real lending rates, which move with the gap between contracted nominal rates and realized inflation, shifted from deeply negative -as high and accelerating inflation had been eroding the real value of fixed-rate debt for several years, fostering a widespread habit of debt dilution among agents- to significantly positive, as disinflation turned out faster than expected.