Análisis Económico

Net capital inflows and party ideology

Evidence from Latin America
Fecha
Duración
90 minutos
Modalidad
Presencial
Expositor / Institución
Pablo Garofalo
Ciclo de Seminarios de Análisis Económico

Leftist governments tend to pursue policies that favor labor over capital, which has led to the claim that such policies negatively impact net capital inflows. However, empirical evidence supporting this claim is limited. In a sample of Latin American countries for the period 1996-2020, I find that net capital inflows as a percentage of GDP are on average one percentage point lower during leftist governments than during centrist ones when both types of governments are unified (i.e., the party in control of the executive also holds a majority of seats in the legislature). However, capital inflows do not seem to respond to executive’s ideology when governments are divided. This suggests that investors may perceive divided governments as a guarantee of policy stability, regardless of the executive’s ideology. Consequently, there is no incentive for investors to alter their investment decisions. My findings remain statistically significant across a range of sensitivity checks and extensions. These include incorporating populist governments, identified using GPT classifiers based on established definitions of populism; alternative estimation methods; and an unsupervised machine learning technique for regrouping Latin American countries into different samples. I also highlight the advantages of using the political variables constructed in this paper over institutional quality indices to study capital inflows dynamics.

Expositor
Pablo Garofalo
Pablo Garofalo

Ph.D. in Economics University of Houston | Houston, TX. Master of Science (M.S.) in Economics Universidad del CEMA | Buenos Aires, Argentina. Consultant, Inter-American Development Bank. Associate Editor, Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Online.

Moderador
Jorge Streb
Jorge M. Streb

Director de Investigaciones Economista, su licenciatura es de la Universidad de Buenos Aires y su doctorado de la University of California, Berkeley. Especializado en economía política, con publicaciones en reconocidas revistas académicas internacionales, sus intereses de investigación incluyen la influencia de las instituciones y de la ideología, así como la economía de la información, el uso del lenguaje y las señales. Profesor Investigador de la Universidad del Cema desde 1995, antes dio clases en la Universidad Católica Argentina, la Universidad de Buenos Aires, la Universidad de San Andrés, la Universidad Torcuato Di Tella y el Instituto de Desarrollo Económico y Social. Profesor invitado de la Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, la Universidad Nacional de San Luis, la Universidad del Pacífico (Lima) y el Insper (San Pablo, SP). Investigador visitante en el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo. Se desempeñó en el Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA). Editor del Journal of Applied Economics desde 2008.