In this second meeting of the UCEMA Naumann Chair, Ricardo Gomes, President of the RELIAL network, explained the political and economic situation of Brazil in this pandemic crisis, in conversation with the head of the Naumann Foundation in Argentina, Dr. Lars-André Richter, and the project coordinator of that organization Juan Manuel Aguero.  
  

Gomes established five central points for understanding the conflicts in Brazil: 

1. There is a dispute between the constituted powers. Bolsonaro is against more drastic measures of social distancing, due to the serious economic effects they could bring. Nevertheless, it is false that in Brazil there is no lockdown regime. The Supreme Court declared that any of the governors or mayors can declare a lockdown in their provinces and localities. This generated a second level of constitutional conflict, not between the executive and judiciary but vertically, Bolsonaro against the governors who came out to declare curfews, business closures, distancing, different measures depending on the place. The strongest of them is the governor of Sao Pablo, being this the province with more inhabitants and economic power, and being a social democrat governor with aspirations to presidency. At this moment Bolsonaro is fighting with the Supreme Court and the governors. 

2. The weakness of individual human rights a constitutional guarantee. In Brazil, at the end of the military governments, the constitutional regime was sustained. According to Gomes, the list of rights that are in the article 5 of the Brazilian Constitution has always been protected. “The protection of rights is so important that if an enemy country invades Brazil, the President, in order to suspend constitutional guarantees, has to listen to the Council of the Nation, Defense Council, submit to vote and only then can the constitutional guarantee be suspended. It is a regime of protection. When the Supreme Court decided that the governors can declare quarantine, it not only created competition but gave them the power to do so with only a decree, an executive order. There is no procedure for the protection of rights in the parliaments. This showed a weakness in the system of protection of rights and there was much scandal among the inhabitants”.  

3. Corruption scandal in public purchases. When the governors went out to buy beds and respirators, the bought thinks of “a terrible quality with terrible control”. There are already a dozen governors who are being investigated for crimes of corruption, fraudulent purchases of medical equipment. 

4. Economic impact. Brazil´s economy has lived recession for 5 years, and the positive impact of the economic measures taken by Bolsonaro was just being noticed. The pandemic stopped the process. Everything is frozen. That produces economic demands from the population, such as demand for State investment to recover employment, demand for public spending to sustain the GDP, demand for control of the entry of imported products, demand for border closures, a demand for protectionism that grows with the promotion of nationalism. The fiscal pressure this could exert is worrying. The provinces and municipalities that are bankrupt are also asking help from the national government, which, according to Gomes, is unaffordable for a country with fiscal deficit and even more so in this context. He assured that Brazil would end up resorting to indebtedness and issuance. He also mentioned that the need for a new Marshall Plan is raised, but it is not said with whose money, let us remember that the United States is worried about its own problems. People are also asking for lower interest rates, which would also imply more fiscal pressure. The economic impact is going to come from the demands that are being made on the government. To close, he mentioned that the Bolsonaro government called itself liberal, and now the Minister of Economy Paulo Guedes stated that “we are liberal but not dogmatic” 

5. What may happen in the next elections. The municipal elections were going to take place in October but have already been postponed. They are the first after Bolsonaro´s election.   An increase in conservative or liberal candidacies was expected, but at this moment the demand for social spending has grown. Of course, it favors a more leftist type of candidate. With this crisis and the demands thar arose from it, the acceptance of state intervention is going to play a fundamental role. Gomes made reference to the book “Los orígenes de la cultura autoritaria” (The origins of authoritarian culture) by José Ignacio García Hamilton, which explains the idea that exists in Latin America of paternalism, the idea of the “great leader”. This dependence on the state and the view that the government must offer all the solutions, is a significant challenge to liberal thought. It is a historical problem that seems to be reborn just at the moment when an increase of liberals was expected. As Bastiat said, “The state is that great fiction by which everyone tries to live at the expense of everyone else”. 

On the positive side, Gomes stressed that Brazil has always been a country with much concentration of power in the federal government, and that even if this is dangerous, the decision of the Supreme Court could produce a good result in the future. He also mentioned the emergence of groups, as one in the United States working with the hashtag #NeverNeeded, alluding to the fact that the current level of bureaucracy and social cost of employing people were never needed. They argument that bureaucracy is the enemy of employment and wealth generation. Both are encouraging for the future of Brazil and the region, according to Gomes.