Este trabajo recopila una serie de documentos escritos mayoritariamente durante la última década. El tema común son los movimientos de capitales y sus efectos sobre variables cruciales de la economía, tales como la inflación, el crecimiento, el tipo real de cambio y el equilibrio comercial.
Desde épocas bastante primitivas de la banca, el retiro generalizado de depósitos fue una ocupación permanente. El concepto de "riesgo sistémico" es el que mejor representa esta ocupación, y su persistencia a través de los siglos como uno de los principales problemas de la banca radica en la interpretación de que es un riesgo no diversificable.
A recurrent feature of economies that alternate between periods of high and low inflation is that they also alternate between periods of high and low real exchange rates, as the experience of Argentina shows.
As the recent Mexican crisis vividly illustrates, Latin American countries often go through boom-bust cycles caused by both domestic policies and external shocks. Such cycles are typically magnified by weak bank-ing systems which intermediate large capital inflows. This paper develops a simple optimizing model to analyze how the banking sector affects the propagation of shocks. In particular, we show how the world business cycle and shocks to the banking system affect output and employment through fluctuations in bank credit.
The model of labor relations that prevailed in the Western world after World War II was formally proposed in 1958 by J. Dunlop.¹ In 1960, a synthesis of the prevailing thought on the subject was presented in a work by Kerr, Dunlop, Harbison, and Myers. This model was based primarily on the experience of the United States, which was presented at the time as the "best practice" to be emulated in other countries. It was closely associated with the modes of mass production structured according to the Fordist-Taylorist principles analyzed in previous works.
The term or idea of structure can be traced over a long series of meanings, although rather imprecise, even back to the Greek classics. The vagueness could be readily associated with the fact that this term, this idea, has appeared at very diverse points in the cultural spectrum. From linguistics to mathematics, from biology to history, everyone at one time or another made some use of the idea of structure. However, only during the 19th century did very evident traces appear of the use of the concept in the field of social sciences.
Production efficiency is usually assumed in microeconomic theory. In particular, a single production function is supposed to exist for all producers in the industry. Output may be random due to variation in the levels of uncontrollable inputs (e.g. weather in agricultural production; power failures in industry); however expected value of output is identical for decision-makers using the same input bundle. Further, in general it is assumed that producers equate marginal rates of transformation (either factor-factor, factor-product or product-product) to relevant price ratios.
I estimate that this year the Gross Domestic Product will grow by 7 percent and inflation will not exceed 2 percent. Between May 1996 and May 1997, 500,000 new jobs were created. This signifies economic growth with monetary stability. Few countries in Latin America, and perhaps in the world, can boast such a strong performance. In particular, this increase in GDP will be a consequence, in relative terms, of a strong recovery in investment and the expansion of exports and imports.