Dollarization dynamics: A comment

Enviado por ved el Lun, 12/06/2023 - 13:55

We analyze a recent paper that claims that dollarizing an economy in the presence of a “dollar shortage” will provoke an immediate sharp reduction in real output and welfare. We find many problems with the model that supports this conclusion: confusion about the nature of a dollar shortage and its practical implications, invalid assumptions, invariant calibration in the presence of a regime change and lack of empirical testing. In our opinion, the paper does not make a valuable contribution to the dollarization debate nor provide useful guidance to policymakers.

From Euclidean Distance to Spatial Classification: Unraveling the Technology behind GPT Models

Enviado por ved el Vie, 28/04/2023 - 10:36

In this paper, we present a comprehensive analysis of the technology underpinning Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) models, with a particular emphasis on the interrelationships between Euclidean distance, spatial classification, and the functioning of GPT models. Our investigation begins with a thorough examination of Euclidean distance, elucidating its role as a fundamental metric for quantifying the proximity between points in a multi-dimensional space.

Is inflation caused by conflict?

Enviado por ved el Lun, 17/04/2023 - 18:02

We offer a critique of a paper recently published Lorenzoni and Werning (2023) that seeks to make an original contribution to the hypothesis that inflation is primarily caused by conflict and reconcile the Post-Keynesian and New-Keynesian traditions. L&W’s paper has two sections. In the first they develop a barter model that allows them to prove that inflation can occur with conflict and without money. In the second they incorporate the conflict hypothesis into a broader framework compatible with New Keynesian models.

Israel: El milagro de Desarrollo Económico basado en el modelo de start-ups

Enviado por ved el Vie, 31/03/2023 - 11:12

El presente trabajo evalúa la forma en que Israel se convierte en una Start-up Nation. Dentro del mismo se explicitan los factores económicos y no económicos que conllevaron a que el país pueda desarrollarse dentro de un entorno hostil. A su vez, se explican las diferentes políticas públicas que contribuyeron al desarrollo del país. También se utiliza como contraejemplo a la Argentina para comprender el porqué del desarrollo de Israel.

Cuarenta años de democracia: una reflexión personal

Enviado por ved el Mié, 22/03/2023 - 10:52

Basada principalmente en mi memoria, este ensayo plantea una reflexión personal sobre lo ocurrido en las últimas 4 décadas en el escenario internacional, el contexto político local, las autoridades económicas, las políticas ensayadas y los resultados obtenidos. Complementa la obra escrita ajena y propia referida al período 1983-2023. Servirá de poco a quien nada sabe sobre el período; espero que le resulte útil a quienes saben algunas cosas.

 

Estimation of Probabilities for Ordered Sets and Application to Calibration of Rating Models

Enviado por ved el Mar, 21/03/2023 - 09:28

The goal of this document is to present a methodology for estimating probabilities for ordered sets. This may have several practical applications such as calibration of Rating Models, estimation of Mortality Tables or measurement of side effects related to different doze sizes. In order to do this, an Objective / Non Informative Bayesian approach is applied, through which, using a multidimensional Jeffreys prior, a posterior distribution may be inferred for each of the probabilities being estimated.

Dollarization as an Effective Commitment Device: The Case of Argentina

Enviado por ved el Jue, 09/03/2023 - 11:04

One of the main reasons to dollarize is to eliminate high, persistent, and volatile inflation.
However, to be effective, dollarization must generate sufficient credibility, which in turn
depends critically on a low expected probability of reversal. In other words, dollarization can
be successful if it is an effective commitment device (ECD). Argentina once again faces high,
persistent, and volatile inflation. With a looming presidential election politicians and academics