Narrow banking, financial fragility and dollarization

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In the United States proposals to separate money creation from credit intermediation regularly resurface as remedies for financial instability. In Argentina, they also feature in arguments that dollarization requires full-reserve banking. This paper reviews the historical and modern versions of these proposals and highlights the structural disadvantages that make them inadvisable.

The 30-day US dollar futures contract at A3 mercados as a predictor of the spot exchange rate

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This paper examines whether the 30-day US dollar futures contract traded on A3Mercados (DLR) is a good predictor of the wholesale spot exchange rate thirty days ahead. Using 5,741 daily observations between January 2003 and September 2026, we build a constant-maturity 30-day futures series and compare it with the realized spotrate across six exchange-rate regimes, from managed floating to the current band scheme. Futures prices are not unbiased predictors regime by regime: they underestimated devaluation under the 2011-15 exchange controls and overestimated it by roughly 1.2%

1776 y Alberdi: la relectura de Adam Smith en los Escritos póstumos a doscientos cincuenta años de La riqueza de las naciones

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Con motivo del 250º aniversario de La riqueza de las naciones (1776), este artículo analiza la presencia de Adam Smith en los Escritos póstumos de Juan Bautista Alberdi. A diferencia de la historiografía tradicional, centrada en la recepción temprana de la economía política clásica o en su función programática durante la organización nacional, aquí se examina su uso en la etapa final de la producción intelectual alberdiana.

The Americas Monetary Accord: Monetary Integration Without a Single Currency

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A quarter of a century after Argentina’s 2001 crisis settled the fixed-versus-floating debate in favor of flexibility, the Latin American evidence is less favorable than the consensus assumed. Flexible exchange rates helped bring inflation down, but the region’s major floaters gained little monetary independence and experienced substantial real exchange-rate and interest-rate volatility and slower growth.

¿Quién decide? Capacidad de elección y políticas públicas en la Argertina reciente

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Este paper examina cuánto pueden decidir las personas y las familias sobre la ayuda que reciben en algunas iniciativas recientes del Ministerio de Capital Humano. Sostiene que, con diferencias importantes, comienza a reconocerse un lugar propio a sus preferencias, sin que el Estado abandone sus responsabilidades de financiamiento, regulación y protección. La discusión parte de mis trabajos sobre filantropía no asistencialista, educación de adultos y libertad educativa.

Was the Peel Act Ricardian? Monetary rules and policy equivalence, 1821–1844

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The Peel Act of 1844 is often portrayed as the legal embodiment of David Ricardo’s monetary ideas. This paper argues that it was not. Ricardo’s final proposal regulated note issue through market signals—the value of paper relative to gold and the foreign exchanges—whereas Peel imposed a quantity constraint tied to bullion reserves. Using monthly circulation data and quotation-level foreign exchange and gold data, the paper evaluates whether these different rules were policy-equivalent over 1821–1844.

Trilemma or dilemma? Olivera’s monetary heteronomy and the global financial cycle

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This paper revisits Julio H. G. Olivera’s largely forgotten theory of monetary heteronomy, developed between 1977 and 1983. In modern terms, Olivera reduces Mundell’s trilemma to a dilemma: under passive international money, only the monetary leader can simultaneously control its domestic money supply and the international value of its currency; other countries must choose between the two. Floating therefore does not necessarily restore monetary autonomy.

Consideraciones sobre el proyecto de Ley de Libertad Educativa

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Este paper analiza el proyecto de Ley de Libertad Educativa a partir de las principales objeciones que despertó: su supuesto carácter economicista, la relación entre libertad y obligatoriedad, y la capacidad de las familias —en especial las de menores recursos— para elegir la educación de sus hijos. Examina luego el financiamiento centrado en el alumno, la autonomía escolar, las formas alternativas de enseñanza, la formación docente, la educación universitaria y el vínculo entre la escuela secundaria y el trabajo.

CAPM’s expected returns and delivered return on equity: an approach to the S&P500

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This paper aims to reconcile two measures of return on shareholders’ capital: on one hand, the expected return arising from the use of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), and on the other, the realized Return on Equity (ROE) as an accounting measure of capital efficiency. Both metrics ultimately refer to the same underlying variable—the cost of equity Ke—yet they are seldom analyzed jointly in the literature.