Disinflation faster than expected: transitional household credit risk in Argentina (2016-2026)
Rapid disinflation can increase household credit risk by raising the real burden of fixed-rate debt. Using a monthly, product-level panel for Argentina, this paper studies the effect on household credit risk of the disinflation that began after December 2023, when inflation fell from 25% to under 2% within a year. Because non-performing loan (NPL) ratios are highly persistent, responses are estimated with Local Projections on cumulative changes rather than levels.